State lottery commissions capitalize on the availability heuristic by running many TV commercials showing that lucky person who won the $100 million Powerball. A vivid memory is created, which leads viewers to an inaccurate estimate of the likelihood that the event will happen to them.

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The availability heuristic is the tendency to rely on easily accessible and memorable information when making judgments or decisions. Lottery commissions use this by making the memory of someone winning the jackpot vivid and easily accessible through frequent TV commercials. This leads people to overestimate the chances of winning the lottery, as they base their estimates on the vivid memory rather than the actual statistical probability.

State Lottery Commissions Capitalize on the Availability Heuristic by Running