The following table shows the annual revenues (in millions of dollars)of a pharmaceutical company over the period 1990-2011. The autoregressive models of order 1 and 2,yt = β0 + β1yt - 1 + εt,and yt = β0 + β1yt - 1 + β2yt - 2+ εt,were applied on the time series to make revenue forecasts.The relevant parts of Excel regression outputs are given below.
Model AR(1):
Model AR(2):
Using the AR(2)model,find the company revenue forecast for 2012.
Correct Answer:
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