A local project being analyzed by PERT has 42 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path. If the estimated time along the critical path is 105 days with a project variance of 25, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 95 days or more?
A) -0.40000
B) 0.02275
C) 0.34444
D) 0.97725
E) 4.20000

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability that the project will be completed in 95 days or more can be found using the Z-score formula in project management, which is Z = (X - μ) / σ, where X is the desired project completion time, μ is the mean or expected project completion time (105 days in this case), and σ is the standard deviation of the project completion time. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, so σ = √25 = 5. For X = 95 days, Z = (95 - 105) / 5 = -10 / 5 = -2. This Z-score corresponds to a probability of 0.97725, meaning there's a 97.725% chance the project will take longer than 95 days, or conversely, a 2.275% chance it will be completed in less than 95 days.

A Local Project Being Analyzed by PERT Has 42 Activities