Question 1

Carol judges the probability of category membership by how well an object resembles a category. Carol is doing which of the following?

Accepted Answer

Carol is using the representativeness heuristic, in which an object is judged to belong to a category if it has properties that are typical or representative of that category.

Question 2

College students incorrectly judge that death by plane crash is more frequent than death from asthma. In fact, asthma is 20 times more likely to cause death. Which of the following explains this error in judgment?

Accepted Answer

This error in judgment is due to the availability heuristic, where people base their judgments and conclusions on information that is easily available to them. The media often heavily covers plane crashes, making them more memorable and available in people's minds, while deaths from asthma may not receive as much attention. As a result, people may believe that plane crashes are more common and more likely to cause death than they actually are.

Question 3

Implicit procedural memory is to the _____ as explicit episodic memory is to the _____.

Accepted Answer

The cerebellum and basal ganglia are responsible for implicit/procedural memory, which involves learning how to do things (e.g. ride a bike, tie shoelaces) without conscious awareness. The hippocampus is responsible for explicit/episodic memory, which involves remembering specific events and experiences.

Question 4

The availability heuristic is _____.

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on the ease with which we can bring something to mind when evaluating its probability or frequency. This means that the more easily we remember an event, the more probable we think it is.

Question 5

Talking about his acquaintance Doug who is really "into" technology, Dave says that it is more likely that Doug has both a Blu-ray player and a flat screen TV than just a Blu-ray player. Apparently influenced by the _____ heuristic, Dave has _____.

Accepted Answer

The statement "more likely" suggests that Dave is using the representativeness heuristic, which involves making judgments based on similarity to a prototype or stereotype. However, his statement also involves the conjunction fallacy, which is the tendency to believe that multiple specific conditions are more likely than a single general one. In this case, the conjunction fallacy occurs because it is less likely for someone to have both a Blu-ray player and a flat screen TV than just one of those things.

Question 6

Most people incorrectly think that "r" appears more often as the first letter of a word than as the third letter. This belief stems from the use of the _____ heuristic, based on the way we _____.

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory. In this case, people may remember and recall more words that start with "r" than those that have "r" as the third letter, leading them to believe that it appears more often as the first letter. This misconception is not based on categorization, which is why option B is incorrect. The representativeness heuristic is the tendency to make judgments based on how well something fits our prototype or stereotype, which is not the case here, making option C incorrect.

Question 7

The gambler's fallacy is _____.

Accepted Answer

The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that if a chance event has not occurred for a while, then it is more likely to occur. It is based on the false assumption that probability has a memory, which is not true. This fallacy often occurs in gambling situations, but can also apply to other contexts. Option A is incorrect as it refers to a separate concept of the casino's advantage in gambling games. Option B is incorrect as it refers to a specific situation where the probability is 50/50, but this does not always apply. Option D is incorrect as there is a correct answer.

Question 8

Which of the following may lead to use of the availability heuristic?

Accepted Answer

All of the given options may lead to the use of the availability heuristic. The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a person's mind when evaluating a specific topic or concept. Therefore, particularly vivid events, recent events, and events that are easily recalled from memory are all possible triggers for using the availability heuristic.

Question 9

Rafael is attempting to solve a Tower of Hanoi problem that includes four disks. What is the minimum number of moves required to solve a four-disk version of the problem?

Accepted Answer

The minimum number of moves required to solve a Tower of Hanoi problem with n disks is given by the formula 2^n - 1. For four disks, it would be 2^4 - 1 = 16 - 1 = 15 moves.

Question 10

With respect to the "Linda" problem in the textbook, people judge that it is more likely that Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement because they _____ and misuse the _____.

Accepted Answer

Participants in the "Linda" problem fallacy committed the conjunction fallacy by judging that it is more likely for Linda to be both a bank teller and a feminist rather than just a bank teller. This violates the conjunction rule of probability. Additionally, participants also misused the representativeness heuristic by assuming that Linda fits the typical stereotype of a feminist bank teller, leading them to choose the less probable option.

Question 11

John is using fast, intuitive processing to judge the likelihood that he will do well on a test. John's thinking is characteristic of _____ processing, which is _____.

Accepted Answer

Fast, intuitive processing is a characteristic of System 1 processing, which is less reliable than System 2 processing. System 1 processing relies on heuristics and shortcuts, which can lead to errors in judgment, while System 2 processing is slower and more deliberate, allowing for more careful analysis and a greater likelihood of accurate judgments.

Question 12

After several highly publicized instances of deadly shark attacks, many people stopped swimming in the ocean. It appears that vivid media coverage prompted people to use _____ to judge the probability of death by shark attack.

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is used when people estimate the probability of an event based on how easily examples of the event come to mind. In this case, because the shark attacks were highly publicized and vivid in people's memories, they overestimated the likelihood of such attacks happening to them.

Question 13

In the game of roulette, a wheel spins and a ball lands at random in one of an equal number of black and red slots. Because the ball landed in a red slot four times in a row, Cal believes it will land in a black slot on the next spin. Which MOST accurately describes the validity of Cal's belief?

Accepted Answer

Cal's belief is based on the misconception that random outcomes in a roulette game alternate more than they actually do. The outcome of each spin is independent of the previous spin, so the probability of the ball landing in a red slot is still 50% on the next spin, regardless of what happened in the previous spins. The law of averages does not apply in this situation, and there is no reason to believe that the probability of a red outcome increases after a series of black outcomes.

Question 14

After learning that the parents of both of her roommates were divorced, Meghan began to overestimate the divorce rate. Meghan's conclusion BEST illustrates the misuse of the _____.

Accepted Answer

Meghan's overestimation of the divorce rate is an example of the availability heuristic, where she is relying on easily available information (i.e. the experiences of her roommates' parents) rather than more accurate statistical information. The anchoring and adjustment heuristic relates to people's tendency to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information, which is not evident in this scenario. The conjunction rule and fallacy refer to the probability of two events occurring together, which is not directly applicable to Meghan's situation.

Question 15

Which is an example of an erroneous belief that may arise from subjective, informal hypothesis testing?

Accepted Answer

The belief in mental telepathy is not supported by scientific evidence and is an example of an erroneous belief that may arise from subjective and informal hypothesis testing. The other options are either supported by empirical evidence or a matter of fact.

Question 16

Which statement about categorization is FALSE?

Accepted Answer

We actually judge categorical probabilities in a similar way to how we recognize patterns. Both processes rely on our ability to categorize information and recognize similarities between different stimuli. Therefore, statement B is false.

Question 17

On a roulette wheel, there are an equal number of red (R) and black (B) slots into which a ball may fall at random. Suppose a roulette wheel is spun five times. Which sequence of outcomes is more likely?

Accepted Answer

Each individual spin is independent, so the probability of each sequence occurring is the same. Therefore, all the answers are equally likely.

Question 18

Because he heard news reports nightly concerning the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, Kevin overestimated his risk of being a victim of a terrorist attack. Kevin's overestimate was likely influenced by _____.

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are more easily remembered or vivid due to their availability in memory. In this case, Kevin's overestimation of the risk of being a victim of a terrorist attack is likely influenced by the extensive news coverage of the 9/11 attacks, which made the event more vivid and memorable, leading him to overestimate the likelihood of it happening to him.

Question 19

Which contributes to both the gambler's fallacy and the conjunction fallacy?

Accepted Answer

The representativeness heuristic contributes to both the gambler's fallacy and the conjunction fallacy. In the gambler's fallacy, people assume that because a certain outcome has not occurred for a while, it is more likely to occur soon since it is "due." This is based on the representativeness heuristic, which leads people to believe that random events should balance out over time. In the conjunction fallacy, people assume that a specific combination of events is more likely than a single event because it seems more representative of a particular category or group. This is also based on the representativeness heuristic, which leads people to focus on the most salient or typical features of a situation.

Question 20

David judges the joint occurrence of two uncertain events as being more likely than the occurrence of either of the events alone. David is doing which of the following?

Accepted Answer

David is committing the conjunction fallacy, which occurs when people judge the likelihood of two events occurring together as higher than the likelihood of each event occurring alone. This violates the laws of probability and demonstrates how people often use heuristics (mental shortcuts) rather than logical analysis when making judgments. The other options (representativeness heuristic, availability heuristic, confirmation bias) are not relevant to the scenario described.

Quiz 6: Section 2: Thinking and Intelligence