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Statistics
Quiz 12: Multiple Regression and Model Building
Path 4
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Question 61
Essay
A certain type of rare gem serves as a status symbol for many of its owners. In theory, for low prices, the demand decreases as the price of the gem increases. However, experts hypothesize that when the gem is valued at very high prices, the demand increases with price due to the status the owners believe they gain by obtaining the gem. Thus, the model proposed to best explain the demand for the gem by its price is the quadratic model
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
E ( y ) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } x + \beta _ { 2 } x ^ { 2 }
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
where
y
=
y =
y
=
Demand (in thousands) and
x
=
x =
x
=
Retail price per carat (dollars). This model was fit to data collected for a sample of 12 rare gems. A portion of the printout is given below:
SOURCE
DF
SS
MS
F
PR > F
Model
2
115145
57573
373
.
0001
Error
9
1388
154
TOTAL
11
116533
\begin{array} { l r r r r r } \text { SOURCE}&\text { DF}&\text { SS }&\text { MS}& \text { F }&\text { PR > F}\\\\\text { Model } & 2 & 115145 & 57573 & 373 & .0001 \\ \text { Error } & 9 & 1388 & 154 & & \\ \text { TOTAL } & 11 & 116533 & & & \end{array}
SOURCE
Model
Error
TOTAL
DF
2
9
11
SS
115145
1388
116533
MS
57573
154
F
373
PR > F
.0001
Root MSE
12.42
\quad 12.42 \quad
12.42
R-Square
.
988
\quad .988
.988
PARAMETER T for
H
O
\mathrm { HO }
HO
:
\begin{array} { l r r r r }& \text {PARAMETER}&& \text { \mathrm{T} for \( \mathrm{HO} \) }:\\\text {VARIABLES}& \text {ESTIMATES }& \text {STD. ERROR}& \text { PARAMETER = 0 }& \text {PR \(> | T |\)}\\ \text { INTERPCEP } & 286.42 & 9.66 & 29.64 & .0001 \\ \mathrm { X } & - .31 & .06 & - 5.14 & .0006 \\ \mathrm { X } \cdot \mathrm { X } & .000067 & .00007 & .95 & .3647 \end{array}
Is there sufficient evidence to indicate the model is tuseful for predicting the demand for the gem? Use
α
=
.
01
\alpha = .01
α
=
.01
.
Question 62
True/False
When testing the utility of the quadratic model
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
E ( y ) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } x + \beta _ { 2 } x ^ { 2 }
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
, the most important tests involve the null hypotheses
H
0
:
β
0
=
0
H _ { 0 } : \beta 0 = 0
H
0
:
β
0
=
0
and
H
0
:
β
1
=
0
H _ { 0 } : \beta _ { 1 } = 0
H
0
:
β
1
=
0
.
Question 63
Multiple Choice
A collector of grandfather clocks believes that the price received for the clocks at an auction increases with the number of bidders, but at an increasing (rather than a constant) rate. Thus, the model proposed to best explain auction price (y, in dollars) by number of bidders (x) is the quadratic model
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
E ( y ) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } x + \beta _ { 2 } x ^ { 2 }
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
This model was fit to data collected for a sample of 32 clocks sold at auction; a portion of the printout follows:
PARAMETER
STANDARD
T FOR 0:
VARIABLES
ESTIMATE
ERROR
PARAMETER
=
0
PROB
>
∣
T
∣
INTERCEPT
286.42
9.66
29.64
.
0001
X
−
.
31
.
06
−
5.14
.
0016
X
⋅
X
.
000067
.
00007
.
95
.
3600
\begin{array}{lrrrr}\hline &\text { PARAMETER }& \text {STANDARD }& \text { T FOR 0: }\\\text { VARIABLES } & \text { ESTIMATE } & \text { ERROR } & \text { PARAMETER }=0 & \text { PROB }>|T|\\\text { INTERCEPT } & 286.42 & 9.66 & 29.64 & .0001 \\\mathrm{X} & -.31 & .06 & -5.14 & .0016 \\\mathrm{X} \cdot \mathrm{X} & .000067 & .00007 & .95 & .3600 \\\hline\end{array}
VARIABLES
INTERCEPT
X
X
⋅
X
PARAMETER
ESTIMATE
286.42
−
.31
.000067
STANDARD
ERROR
9.66
.06
.00007
T FOR 0:
PARAMETER
=
0
29.64
−
5.14
.95
PROB
>
∣
T
∣
.0001
.0016
.3600
Give the
p
p
p
-value for testing
H
0
:
β
2
=
0
H _ { 0 } : \beta _ { 2 } = 0
H
0
:
β
2
=
0
against
H
a
:
β
2
≠
0
H _ { a } : \beta 2 \neq 0
H
a
:
β
2
=
0
.
Question 64
Short Answer
A certain type of rare gem serves as a status symbol for many of its owners. In theory, for low prices, the demand decreases as the price of the gem increases. However, experts hypothesize that when the gem is valued at very high prices, the demand increases with price due to the status the owners believe they gain by obtaining the gem. Thus, the model proposed to best explain the demand for the gem by its price is the quadratic model
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
E ( y ) = \beta _ { 0 } + \beta _ { 1 } x + \beta _ { 2 } x ^ { 2 }
E
(
y
)
=
β
0
+
β
1
x
+
β
2
x
2
where
y
=
y =
y
=
Demand (in thousands) and
x
=
x =
x
=
Retail price per carat (dollars). This model was fit to data collected for a sample of 12 rare gems.
VARIABLES
PARAMETER
ESTIMATES
STD. ERROR
T for HO:
PARAMETER
=
0
PR
>
∣
T
∣
INTERPCEP
286.42
9.66
X
−
.
31
.
06
29.64
.
0001
X.X
.
000067
.
00007
−
5.14
.
0006
.
95
.
3647
\begin{array} { l r r r r } \text { VARIABLES } & \begin{array} { r } \text { PARAMETER } \\ \text { ESTIMATES } \end{array} & \text { STD. ERROR } & \begin{array} { r } \text { T for HO: } \\ \text { PARAMETER } = 0 \end{array} & \text { PR } > | T | \\ \text { INTERPCEP } & 286.42 & 9.66 & & \\ \text { X } & - .31 & .06 & 29.64 & .0001 \\ \text { X.X } & .000067 & .00007 & - 5.14 & .0006 \\ & & & .95 & .3647 \end{array}
VARIABLES
INTERPCEP
X
X.X
PARAMETER
ESTIMATES
286.42
−
.31
.000067
STD. ERROR
9.66
.06
.00007
T for HO:
PARAMETER
=
0
29.64
−
5.14
.95
PR
>
∣
T
∣
.0001
.0006
.3647
Does there appear to be upward curvature in the response curve relating
y
y
y
(demand) to
x
x
x
(retail price)? A) No, since the
p
p
p
-value for the test is greater than .10. B) Yes, since the
p
p
p
-value for the test is less than .01. C) No, since the value of
β
2
\beta _ { 2 }
β
2
is near 0 . D) Yes, since the value of
β
2
\beta _ { 2 }
β
2
is positive.
Question 65
True/False
When using the model E(y) = β0 + β1x for one qualitative independent variable with a 0-1 coding convention, β1 represents the difference between the mean responses for the level assigned the value 1 and the base level.