Question 1

As the need for cognitive closure increases:

Accepted Answer

As the need for cognitive closure increases, people tend to make snap or quick conclusions without considering multiple alternatives or large amounts of information. This is because they want to quickly reach a decision and reduce the uncertainty that comes with open-ended decision-making.

Question 2

People sometimes base rate information because it is a statistic.

Accepted Answer

Base rate information is often ignored rather than overused, misused, emphasized, or overestimated. This is because people tend to rely more on specific information or examples rather than on general statistical information.

Question 3

When several independent or unrelated pieces of iuforrnation taken from a large data set poiut to the same conclusion, a manager should be concerned with:

Accepted Answer

When multiple independent pieces of information from a large dataset point to the same conclusion, it indicates convergence (the coming together of different pieces of information to the same point) and redundancy (the repetition or duplication of information), which are important for validating the conclusion drawn from the data.

Question 4

Advising managers to be sensitive to new information and to revise prior judgments in light of new information reduces the effects of which of the following heuristics?

Accepted Answer

Advising managers to be sensitive to new information and to revise prior judgments in light of new information specifically addresses the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic. This heuristic involves making decisions based on adjustments from an initial starting point (anchor), and being open to new information helps in making more accurate adjustments away from that anchor.

Question 5

The linear model is:

Accepted Answer

The linear model is a decision aid, commonly used in statistics and data analysis to predict the relationship between variables. It is not specifically related to banking, nor used to graph ideal vectors, and its level of systematicness compared to an actuarial model depends on the specific application.

Question 6

Confidence tends to increase as to omission (missing information) .

Accepted Answer

Confidence tends to increase as insensitivity to missing information increases, meaning people often feel more confident even when they overlook gaps in the information they have.

Question 7

is a desire for defmite knowledge, rather than ambiguity or confusion.

Accepted Answer

The statement describes the "Need for Closure," which is the desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity or confusion. None of the options provided (Judgment convergence, Need for cognition, Bayes theorem, Calibration theory) directly refer to this concept.

Question 8

What is the root (or essence) of the planning fallacy?

Accepted Answer

The root essence of the planning fallacy is overconfidence, where people tend to underestimate the resources and time required to complete a task due to an overestimation of their abilities and the underestimation of potential obstacles and delays.

Question 9

The Consumer Cost Perception Index is an economic indicator that has historically been inaccurate and has varied greatly due to poor measurement techniques.This measure is:

Accepted Answer

The question mentions that the Consumer Cost Perception Index has historically been inaccurate and has varied greatly due to poor measurement techniques, which implies that it is unreliable.

Question 10

Scenario thinking:

Accepted Answer

Scenario thinking increases the perceived likelihood of an event by making it more vivid and detailed, which can influence people's judgment about its probability.

Question 11

The example discussed in your readings which explained how the Eurotunnel went over budget and past deadline is an example of:

Accepted Answer

The Eurotunnel project went over budget and past deadline due to the planning fallacy, which is the tendency for individuals or groups to underestimate the time, costs, and risks involved in completing a project.

Question 12

When you want to gain cognitive closure quickly, this is known as what component of need for cognitive closure?

Accepted Answer

Seizing is the component of need for cognitive closure that refers to the desire to quickly reach a conclusion or decision, even if the information is incomplete or the reasoning is flawed. This can lead to cognitive biases and errors in judgment.

Question 13

The decision aid involving the use of a list of categories of common difficulties for use in troubleshooting is known as:

Accepted Answer

The decision aid involving the use of a list of categories of common difficulties for use in troubleshooting is known as a fault tree. Fault trees are graphical representations of the combinations of events that can lead to a particular system failure or undesired outcome. These trees are used to identify possible problems and to help troubleshoot issues by systematically investigating the possible causes of a problem.

Question 14

Subjective liuear models:

Accepted Answer

Subjective linear models often consistently outperform unaided human judgments in a variety of decision-making tasks. This is because they can systematically integrate information and weigh evidence in a consistent manner, reducing the impact of human biases and errors.

Question 15

Information that confounds measures of a target with measures of nontargets are:

Accepted Answer

Information that confounds measures of a target with measures of nontargets are considered invalid because they do not accurately measure the specific target construct.

Question 16

The base rate is a statistic based on:

Accepted Answer

The base rate is a statistic based on a distribution of event scores. It is used to determine the likelihood or probability of an event occurring in a specific population. It is calculated by dividing the number of occurrences of a particular event by the total number of opportunities for the event to occur. Therefore, the correct choice is B.

Question 17

Taking books horne over a holiday expecting to do lots of work and doing nothing at all is an example of:

Accepted Answer

This is an example of the planning fallacy, which refers to our tendency to underestimate the time and resources needed to complete a task. By assuming we will be productive during our holiday, we are not taking into account the potential distractions and relaxation that come with being on vacation.

Question 18

Focusing on leads decision makers to act .

Accepted Answer

Focusing on benefits leads decision makers to act in a risk-averse manner.

Question 19

The decision aid involving the construction of a key list of inputs for a decision, importance weights for each input, and objective ratings of each input for each decision alternative is known as:

Accepted Answer

An actuarial model and an objective linear model both involve using a structured approach with inputs, weights, and ratings to aid in decision-making.

Question 20

Which actions do not improve managerial judgment?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Which actions do not improve managerial judgment?
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Quiz 19: Strategies for Improving Managerial Decision Making