To say that the base rate of being American with depression is 5 percent, whereas the base rate of having the first name "John" is 20 percent, it means that
A) it is more likely for an American to be depressed than to be named John
B) it is less likely for an American to be depressed than to be named John
C) the likelihood of meeting a depressed person named John is about one in five
D) the probability that John and Kate are both depressed is very high

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The base rate of being American with depression is lower than the base rate of having the first name "John", so it is less likely for an American to be depressed than to be named John. Option A is incorrect because it implies that being American with depression is less likely than being named John, which is the opposite of what the base rates suggest. Option C is a possible interpretation of the base rates, but it does not directly answer the question. Option D is unrelated to the given information about base rates.

To Say That the Base Rate of Being American with Depression