In making an estimate of the most pessimistic time for an activity, a manager deliberately estimates this time too high (i.e., longer than it should be). What is the result of this action, assuming the beta distribution is being used to make time estimates?
A) The most likely time for this activity will be larger than it should be.
B) The variance of the activity will be smaller than it should be.
C) The beta distribution will be symmetric around its mean.
D) The expected time for this activity will be larger than it should be.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

By deliberately estimating a longer time for the pessimistic estimate, the manager is effectively increasing the value of the beta distribution's highest point (the mode). As a result, the mean (expected time) will also shift to the right, causing the expected time to be larger than it should be. This approach allows for a more conservative estimate that accounts for unexpected obstacles and delays.

In Making an Estimate of the Most Pessimistic Time for an Activity