You are working on a project that has 12 activities and want to perform a CPM analysis on the project.You determine the critical path consists of only five activities.You then compute the variances for the five critical path activities and these variances are 3,4,2,1 and 6 days.If the desired completion date for the project is 50 days and the expected completion date for the project is 40 days,what is the probability that the project will be completed by the desired completion date?
A)0.99379
B)0.99180
C)0.99772
D)0.91924
E)0.67364

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability can be found using the Z-score formula: Z = (Desired completion time - Expected completion time) / Standard deviation of the critical path. The standard deviation is the square root of the sum of the variances of the critical path activities: sqrt(3+4+2+1+6) = sqrt(16) = 4. The Z-score is (50-40)/4 = 2.5. Using the Z-table, the probability corresponding to a Z-score of 2.5 is approximately 0.99379.

You Are Working on a Project That Has 12 Activities